Well it is vitally important that I post my analysis of the upcoming Ashes series in Australia. I have had a good look at some of the English team and so I feel uniquely placed. I have copped English smugness for too long!
This English team is very strong because they major on important things, like batting and fast bowling. Most of the batsmen are in form and know the way to three figures. Kevin Peterson could on any given day do anything: he is like Gilchrist in this regard. Because he is attacking, he can change a game really quickly. Strauss is very consistent and tough to get out. Alastair Cook makes a solid number three (though he may open if Trescothick doesn't get his head back together). Collingwood is solid and even Bell has scored runs - though I think he is the new Darrell Cullinan when it comes to Shane Warne.
In the bowling, Hoggard, Harmison and Flintoff have some real meanness and consistency about them - though I don't think they will find the reverse swing they got in England. And now they have Panesar, who is a left arm bowler who can take wickets (unlike the world's most boring bowler Ashley Giles - what were they thinking by making him a test player?). Panesar is also fun to watch. They have dropped Geraint Jones which was a great move for the team because now at least some catches will go in.
When they lost this year against Sri Lanka, and failed to beat Pakistan on a couple of occassions, it was because they got spooked by top class spin and dropped heaps of catches. And their fast bowlers seemed to lose interest, or the support bowlers bowled rubbish. The biggest problem of course for England is injuries. If Flintoff plays more than three tests I will eat my hat. Seriously. He is a great player, but they squander him on one day cricket and other money spinners, and he eventually breaks down. Sure as eggs. Likewise if Harmison goes the whole season I will be very surprised.
The Aussie problem will be picking the right team. McGrath is a concern: a champ of old, but is he really the same as he was? He is my age, for heaven's sake! Can Gilchrist get his batting mojo back? Will Hayden look like he is in good need of a counselling session again? Will Langer get injured in a bizarre way? Will Lee give away six runs an over for the whole season? Will they be strong enough not to pick Michael Clarke just because he is a glamour boy? The Aussie selection process was too rigid and sentimental and not based on form- - exposed in the last Ashes.
It could come down to catching you know: I notice both teams have been butter-fingered of late. England can make even Sri Lanka look good by dropping easy catches.
So: Aussies to win, 2-1. The English'll win in Melbourne, as they always do, and they have a chance in Perth. But the Australians will take Brisbane. Adelaide will be a draw as always. Sydney to the Australians.
I'd love to hear your predictions!
12 comments:
It will depend on how well the English batsmen adapt to Australian pitches. They have rarely done that well in the past. The English attack will take a lot of wickets, I have no doubt.
Ponting will top score for the Aussies, and Michael Clarke will come 2nd (what *are* you talking about MJ???) McGrath will play and take 30 wickets.
Aussies to win 2-0.
What am I talking about? even i as a NSWelshman can see the bias in our selections in favour of NSW...
Clarke hasn't perfomed.
Hussey on the other hand... and Brad Hodge. Class.
the thing is also, half the pommy batsmen are South Africans, so they know how to play on hard pitches. Strauss and Petersen should have no problems.
My considered opinion: England will struggle without Simon Jones (like the Bee Gees without Barry), might therefore play 7 batsmen and 4 bowlers, which they can afford to do given how well Panesar is bowling. Still back the Aussies to win though: home advantage and so many class players wanting to end on a high. (Not to mention the blood-lust for vengeance!)
Did I manage to sound authoritative on cricket? Who'd of thunk it?
Mike,
I don't care for your tone
Measured, thoughtful, gracious...respect even?
This is an inappropriate way to discuss English cricketers
I fear you have spent too long away
Sackcloth and ashes for you ;-)
Sam, did you get Vaughan to write that four you?
That's English modesty for you: they really want to win and will be gutted if they lose.
It's a shame we can't think of a way to work a penalty shoot out into cricket...
MPJ have been told to say that maybe someone should spend less time analysing the Ashes and more time writing his Phd...
and as for my opinion? I'd love to see a whole new line up on Australia's side...shake up the old guard a bit...not wanting to bet either way though...could be a close one...
Shane Watson at number 6? Hmm.
So long as Andrew Symonds isn't in the team, I am happy.
This will be the tightest 5 test series on Australian soil for quite a while. I'm excited to see how the poms fare at playing cricket (a) on hard pitches (b) with proper sized outfields (c) in the sunshine and (d) in the heat. If they win in those conditions then hats off to them. The English bowling attack is a force to be reckoned with and will perform well (all the more sans Giles and with a decent keeper). But I reckon their batting will let them down. On paper it's a good line-up and certain individuals (eg KP) will shine. But as a unit they will underperform -- or at least I'm hoping so :-)
Seriously, it's very tough to call. I see Australia winning Brisbane and Sydney and I don't see England winning the other three. So England won't win the series. But they could very well draw it, meaning they retain the Ashes. Pinching two tests (Perth and Melbourne come to mind) is not beyond the realms of possibility. This England side will be the strongest to tour Australia in a long time and the Australian side will be one of the weakest for quite some time. I hope the Aussies get up but it will be tight. The optimist in me tips 3-1 to the Aussies, the pessimist 2-2 and the realist 2-1 to Australia.
Strong analysis, Michael, but I don't think it will be a close series. Poms are Poms, and will fall at the first hurdle. Some wild predictions from my end:
* NSW will beat England in the warm up game, thus setting the tone for the series.
* Flintoff will be a terrible captain and should stick to bowling. If he doesn't, England will get nowhere and the Australians will bat away merrily to 500 in most first innings.
* Warne will have another brilliant series and top the bowling. He'll take 5 wickets in Sydney, probably both innings.
* Australia will win easily 3-0 with two draws (Melbourne and Perth).
* England will do better in the one-day series, with Pietersen shining. However, McGrath and Warne will humiliate Pietersen in the Ashes.
* Hussey will further secure his claim to Australia's future captaincy and possibly sainthood.
* As for Michael Clarke, he will remain as inconsistent and exciting as ever.
Well actually: the English one-day form has been abysmal this year. Atrocious. But it is a good sign, because they are actually concentrating on Tests.
Flintoff's tendency as captain is to overbowl himself hence my prediction about breaking down. But Strauss is actually the better captain so that is a potential bummer for the Aussies.
My prediction thus far correct re English form, except that I forgot that England would have to play the Prime Ministers XI before NSW and this would happen. Ha ha ha. Let the fun begin!
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